Fed Governor Waller Addresses SEP Signaling Role at Istanbul Forum
Fed Governor Christopher Waller examined the predictive and communication value of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections at a Istanbul forum.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller addressed the Istanbul Economic Forum, hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, delivering remarks focused on the informational and signaling value of the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections, commonly known as the SEP.
The SEP, released quarterly alongside Federal Open Market Committee decisions, aggregates the economic and rate forecasts of Fed policymakers and is closely watched by markets, analysts, and foreign central banks as a window into the Fed's collective thinking on inflation, growth, and the future path of interest rates.
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Waller's appearance at a forum convened by Türkiye's central bank underscores the international dimensions of Fed communication policy. When the world's most influential central bank signals its intentions through tools like the SEP, the ripple effects extend well beyond U.S. borders, influencing capital flows, exchange rates, and monetary policy deliberations in emerging markets.
The speech highlights ongoing debate within central banking circles over how forward guidance tools should be interpreted — whether projections represent firm commitments or merely conditional forecasts subject to revision as economic data evolve. The distinction carries practical weight for investors and policymakers calibrating their own responses to Fed signals.
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